Monday, January 23, 2006

Today's the Day

The people are voting. How will they vote?

My own beliefs are as such:

The Tories will win a minority government.

I cannot imagine them winning a majority. They will win no more than two seats in Toronto and no more than five in Quebec. Between La Belle Province and the Big Smoke, you have almost 100 seats. That's about 30% of all the seats available.

To win a majority without access to those two pools of seats is too unlikely. Winning a minority is enough of an achievement.

All of the parties did some interesting things that may really have an impact on the number of seats they'll win. The Bloc's musings about 50% popular vote in Quebec may have strengthened the hands of their opponents. Peculiarly, it may win them additional seats if the Tories get enough traction to hurt the Liberals there. The NDP decided to forget about policy and focus on being Parliamentary Fighters. I have yet to see any party be successful when that's been their platform. Unlike the Bloc, the NDP doesn't have a strong, natural constituency. The Liberals avoided policy for the most part and spent almost all of their advertising budget trying to make Stephen Harper look like a nightmare. I have not heard anybody with my own ears following their lead. The Tories started very strong, focusing on policy and generally being more positive than negative. Harper gave some thoughtful musings that were misguided on the practical nature of Canadian politics. The discussions on the Supreme Court gave the Liberals some focus and something to do during the last two weeks of the campaign.

So, without having an electoral map before me, I'll predict that the Liberals will lose some forty seats in the House. The Bloc will grab perhaps ten of them, the NDP perhaps five and the Tories the rest. The Greens will be left out in the cold again but may increase their popular vote which might give them more money for future operations.

Well, I'm off to vote.


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